Valley feeling impacts of severe drought

Slate River running very low

by Mark Reaman

One look at what appears to be the quickly disappearing Slate River, a ride on the increasingly dusty trails or a walk on the crunchy ground foliage in any of our forests and the fact we are in a drought is no surprise. The local reservoirs are below average and the few weeks of rain we saw in July have not returned with any consistency, despite a monsoon season that normally goes into September. The entire state is experiencing different levels of drought, including this region.

Despite some recent sprinkles and an actual rainstorm earlier this week, the drought in Colorado and Gunnison County is all severe.

“The current situation in Gunnison County according to the U.S. Drought Monitor is that most of our county is in D2, or severe drought. The northern portion of the county is in D3, or extreme drought,” explained water research expert Dr. Rosemary Carroll of the Desert Research Institute, who also sits on the Upper Gunnison Water Conservancy District as a resident of Crested Butte.

“Extreme drought is also occurring to the south and west of us as well, and the entire state of Colorado is in some level of drought—every square inch. For reference, last year in late August, most of the state was not in any drought. Soil moisture is very low and vegetation is under stress throughout the county,” Carroll explained.

That stress is normally alleviated with the so-called summer monsoon rains that used to start in July with regular afternoon rains and run into early September. This year the Gunnison Valley region had about two weeks of the monsoon rains in July. While fortunate for that, the lack of good rain recently has moved the area into a precarious situation.

“We had some great rain in late July but little since,” said Carroll. “The monsoon season typically runs early July to mid-September but not this year. Erik Knight, the hydrologist for the Bureau of Reclamation, issued a report on August 17 showing that inflow to Blue Mesa Reservoir for the April to July runoff was at 57 percent of average. Blue Mesa did not fill this year. It reached 72.8 percent of its peak capacity on June 19. As of August 4, it was at 66.4 percent capacity.”

Carroll said not surprisingly, stream flows in the area are off as well. “Stream flows in our valley are very low and in many cases are approaching, equal to or below 2018 flows,” Carroll explained. “2018 had a very poor snowpack and also a poor monsoon season. Current conditions at various local USGS [U.S. Geological Survey] gauges show there is not a lot of water in the local rivers right now. Stream flow is less than 50 percent of normal across the region.

“The Slate River at Baxter Gulch is lower than the 2018 period. For comparison, the average flow for late August at the Baxter Gauge is about 31 cfs (cubic feet per second). On August 22 of 2018 the flow was measured at 12.3 cfs. This year on August 22, the flow was measured at just 8.5 cfs. That is not good.”

Current conditions in various local USGS gauges include:

—East River at Almont is at 46% normal (median).

—Taylor River at Taylor Park is at 46% normal (mean).

—Tomichi Creek in Gunnison is at 38% of normal (mean).

—Lake Fork at Gateview is at 55% normal (mean).

Carroll did note that things can change but it takes consistent, good moisture along with time. “We need some good rain to fill up soil storage, and help our firefighters and forests everywhere in the state,” she said. “And we need an above-average snow year. I do not know the exact amount but we are in a significant water deficit right now. Just looking back to 2018, things changed with good snow and a wet spring. 2019 pulled us out of the exceptionally dry 2018 year, but it is amazing how quickly we fell back into drought.”

In the long run, the warming climate plays a role and the dryness feeds on itself. Evaporation, the snow melting faster, the lack of an extended monsoon all make it hard to replenish moisture in the valley. Nevertheless, pray for rain.