The Crested Butte News Serving the Gunnison Valley since 1999
Summer precipitation much higher than average
A team of scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are keeping their eyes on the skies above the Gunnison Valley this summer in hopes of gaining a better understanding of local weather patterns to provide more accurate forecasts in the future.
A high-tech mobile radar has been set up on Coopla Hill behind Western State College in Gunnison to assist the meteorologists in their studies.
NOAA Severe Storms Lab research meteorologist Steve Vasiloff visited the Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District (UGRWCD) board of directors on July 27 to report on some of the mobile radar’s findings.
The radar and meteorological study are part of a joint project between the NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory and the Colorado Water Conservation Board. Since stormy weather typically leads to more water, the UGRWCD has been closely following the project and helping out wherever possible.
The project was initiated because high mountain environments such as Gunnison’s are at a disadvantage when it comes to weather forecasting. NOAA’s Doppler radar on Grand Mesa is the only radar within hundreds of miles west of the Continental Divide, and is used for predicting storm events across western Colorado and eastern Utah. Because of the distance and difference in elevation between the Doppler radar and Gunnison, many local storm events go unnoticed by the radar.
With insights from the study, meteorologists hope to be able to forecast storm events more accurately using existing tools, such as satellite imagery and the far-reaching Doppler radar in Mesa County.
Vasiloff said the mobile radar has been operational in Gunnison County since July 18. He said the team has also installed 11 “tipping bucket” rain gauges at different locations in the Gunnison Valley. The tipping bucket gauges are highly sensitive rain gauges, which can measure the rainfall received between specific cells of clouds.
“We’ve seen a phenomenal difference in what we’re seeing locally with the radar and what they’re seeing with the Grand Junction radar,” Vasiloff said of the studies so far. “A lot of times I’ll call them up and they’ll say ‘We see light rain,’ but here it’s pouring.
“We already have a tremendous data set to start working with. We’re going to be here until the end of August collecting data and archiving everything. We have to leave a legacy, and the legacy has to be some kind of adjustment to the equations used in standard weather service operations… So when they’re reporting data from their radar [on Grand Mesa] it’ll be more accurate in the future.”
UGRWCD board member Steve Glazer asked if the weather team’s data could lead to getting a permanent radar installed locally.
Vasiloff said there was potential that the study could lead to a permanent weather station. He said there have been other areas in the country, such as a suburb of Seattle, where a permanent radar was installed, “because of a massive blockage there.”
UGRWCD manager Frank Kugel asked if the local weather study has developed any insights into weather patterns or intensity.
Vasiloff said there wasn’t anything unusual about the weather patterns. He said storms build up over the West Elk mountains and then drop into the valley. The most intense rain they’ve seen is two inches an hour. The UGRWCD board thanked Vasiloff for coming.
In a separate report, Kugel said the Gunnison Basin received 160 percent of its normal precipitation during the month of June. Over the last nine months, including July, the basin has seen 111 percent of average precipitation.
All of the basin’s water reserves have topped out. At the time of the report (July 27) Blue Mesa was 97 percent full, and Taylor Park was 94 percent full.
Blue Mesa reservoir peaked on June 26, with water coming within three inches of the spillway. The water is now about three feet below the spillway.
Releases from Blue Mesa Reservoir into the Black Canyon are currently running at 1,150 cubic feet of water per second (cfs). Flows from Taylor Park Reservoir were close to 400 cfs for most of July, and have since dropped down to 350 cfs.
Kugel’s last inspection of Meridian Lake Reservoir was on July 8, at which time that reservoir was 99 percent full.
The long-term August through October climate outlook by the National Weather Service predicts normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation.
