Winter airline sales picking up but fewer seats flying into valley

Watching marketplace carefully

Last September, the Gunnison Valley Rural Transportation Authority (RTA) and Crested Butte Mountain Resort (CBMR) noted that airline ticket sales into the Gunnison-Crested Butte airport were pacing slightly behind last year. According to Jeff Moffett, CBMR’s director of Crested Butte Vacations, things are picking up—but keeping a finger on the pulse of the airline consumer is the new name of the game.

“There are 11 percent fewer seats arriving in Gunnison, so it’s going to be a big accomplishment if we’re able to get the same number of passengers arriving this year,” Moffett said.
Whereas last year there were 41,000 seats flying into Gunnison, this year there are just under 37,000. If load factors (how full the planes are) stay the same as last year, Moffett explained, there will be 11 percent fewer seats sold this year. And so far, overall sales are pacing a couple of percentage points behind the reduction in capacity.
That reduction in seats is a result of rising minimum revenue guarantees to the airlines, and has affected resort communities across the region. Scott Stewart, with the Montrose RTA, confirmed that their overall airline capacity at the Montrose Regional Airport is down 20 percent this year. Load factors are up 11 percent, but he cautioned that the market is volatile at this time of the year. That percentage can change in any given week.
In response to the decrease in seats, the Gunnison Valley RTA and CBMR, which officially split negotiating responsibilities with the airlines this summer, worked with the airlines to align flights with periods of high demand. But add additional factors like rising fuel prices and attracting consumers requires a discerning eye on the market.
“Our job is to gauge the pulse of the consumer, determining at what point they’ll purchase a ticket, at what point they’ll hold off, and crafting the promotions and the deadlines or specific promotions windows to build marketing campaigns,” Moffett said.
So far, he said, consumers are responding to promotions with specific deadlines or sale windows, like 72-hour sales. American Airlines, which provides service from Dallas, has seen a boost in its sales performance in the last couple of weeks thanks to such promotions.
“There are some published fare sales in the market that will be attractive for vacationing guests and second-home owners, friends and family that want to come and visit. Now is a great time to look because American has been becoming more aggressive and it seems to be paying off,” Moffett said.
United Airlines service out of Houston and Denver, on the other hand, has been more variable. According to Kent Meyers, airline consultant for the RTA, load factors for Houston service are soft when comparing December of this year to last year. But the year-to-year comparison is a difficult one to make because the number of seats and schedule are so different.
“The challenge is obviously that it’s hard to compare what we have this year to last year because last year we were running a bunch more flights per week during January and February,” Meyers said.
This year, United is providing daily service from Houston December 15 through January 2, and continuing every Saturday after that through March.
From Moffett’s perspective Houston’s load factor has picked up considerably. Houston “sales of course are down because there are not as many seats to sell, but in terms of load factor, we’re filling up the planes we do have at a much greater rate.”
He added that United flights out of Denver are a couple of percentage points behind compared to last year, but cautioned that it’s too early to draw conclusions. Consumers have the highest propensity to book during the fall and in January, and promotions are in the works with United to hit those January sales and the rest of the season.
Overall, Moffett said, getting the number of seat sales on par with last year is a lofty goal and will demand continued attention to the marketplace to see what promotions are resonating with consumers.
“It’s a sign of the times that no one has their feet up on the desk anywhere these days, and the things we’ve been working on in the way of promotion development and… moving the needle has been working well for us,” Moffett said.
CBMR also partners with the Gunnison Crested Butte Tourism Association (TA) to get more exposure. According to TA executive director Jane Chaney, the organization promotes the availability of direct flights into Gunnison through a variety of measures, including a direct mail piece to 22,000 past winter guests. In the last month alone, she said, the TA has reached an audience of 3 million via electronic communications and beginning November 16, they will run radio ads promoting direct service to Gunnison Crested Butte in Dallas and Houston.
As CBMR and the TA continue promotions, one boon to tourism that’s out of everyone’s hands could be favorable this year: the weather. This fall’s cold weather and snow have made news in places like Houston, Dallas and Chicago. And according to Erica Reiter, CBMR’s public relations and communications manager, CBMR had four snowmaking days under its belt as of November 7. Last year, snowmaking didn’t even begin until November 9.
“It’s cold and snowing in Colorado already,” Moffett said, “and that’s getting picked up. I can remember riding my mountain bike until opening day the last couple of years, and I already have my bike in storage.”
Businesses interested in another perspective on the upcoming season can attend the Crested Butte/Mt. Crested Butte Chamber of Commerce winter tourism forecast on Thursday, November 10 at the Lodge at Mountaineer Square.
A group of panelists, including Moffett, will represent CBMR, the Tourism Association, the Crested Butte/Mt. Crested Butte Chamber of Commerce, Adaptive Sports Center, Crested Butte Nordic Council and CS Irwin will be on hand. They’ll discuss visitor projections, booking numbers, new events and marketing efforts.