Waiting for snow in the Gunnison Valley

“Don’t waste what you get”

As a mountain town, we’re creative when it comes to getting outside. Without much snow, bikers are heading to Hartman Rocks, and closer to home, there have been tire tracks on the Caves Trail, Upper Loop and Lupine trails. It’s reportedly a killer year for kite skiing.
But let’s get real. Southern slopes are exposed all the way past Gothic. Old timers are talking about the “winter of un,” the practically snowless ski season of 1976-77. Everyone is wondering when snow will fall, and whether 1976 is making a comeback.
The answer? It’s not as simple as we think (or want) it to be.

We’re not imagining things
First, snowfall is nearing record lows—but we’re not there yet. billy barr, business manager at Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, has been recording snowfall in Gothic for 38 years. He recorded 14 inches of snowfall last December.
That’s twice the amount Gothic received in December 1976, but barr says that compared to January 1 of this year, there are only two winters on record with less cumulative snowfall (1977 and 2000) and less snow on the ground (1977 and 1981).
Additional data from Crested Butte’s public works department shows that town received 5.9 inches of snow this December. That’s higher than the record low (2.8 inches in—you guessed it—1976, the winter of un), but it’s well below the average December snowfall of 40.8 inches.
barr pointed out that things can still change. During the winter of 2006-2007, a snowy September, October and November were followed by a winter that was well below average.
“And historically speaking, and the majority of the time, if we have a dry early year, we have a heavy late year,” barr said. “January, February and March are our three heaviest snow months. All it’s gotta do is turn for a week or have one system after another come through.”

Patience will be a virtue
“I feel comfortable talking about storms seven to eight days out, but beyond that forecasts are anything but accurate,” said meteorologist Joel Gatz. Powder hounds might know him for his Colorado Powder Forecast, but he’s recently gone national at www.opensnow.com.
“Ninety-five percent of the time, [long-term forecasts] are not even close. Because they’re out there, people think they must have something for us. But not really,” Gatz continued.
For the past two months, every two-week forecast has suggested that central Colorado will return to a snowier weather pattern. That’s why Gatz is not putting much stock in the current two-week forecast, which hints at the same thing.
“On Saturday and Saturday night there could be a few more clouds. I’m really not excited, but you might see some flakes. Beyond that I just don’t know,” Gatz said.
There are some things meteorology can predict, he said, but for the most part it is great for understanding weather patterns after the fact. This winter, central Colorado has been caught between storms.
When weather systems have come in off the Pacific Ocean, that energy has been splitting to the north and the south. New Mexico, southern Utah and southern Colorado are doing pretty well. Northern states like Montana and Wyoming are also holding their own. But the promise of a snowy La Niña year hasn’t panned out for Crested Butte or neighbors like Aspen.

Larger forces at play
During a La Niña year, cooler water in the central Pacific Ocean affects weather patterns all over the world. To predict how it affects snowfall, forecasters look back over time to see how La Niña weather patterns affect snowfall. Typically, we see more.
“However, La Niña is not a guarantee. It stacks the odds in our favor… but there are some other things that messed everything up,” Gatz said.
Like Arctic oscillation, or atmospheric pressure over the high Arctic. It cycles through phases that are either good or bad for snow in Colorado. During the winter, those phases typically flip-flop every four to six weeks.
Guess what? According to Gatz, this winter it’s been stuck in a pattern that is bad for snow in Central Colorado. And because weather on the ground is never the result of one atmospheric or climactic factor, a shift in the Arctic oscillation will not necessarily guarantee snow.
“There are all these climate and weather patterns that can guide when and where it’s going to snow, and that helps explain what’s been going on. But there’s also a certain lack of predictability. Each individual storm can do whatever it wants,” Gatz said.

Adapting around town
The lack of predictability has left the valley’s major snow players to hedge their own bets. Crested Butte Mountain Resort (CBMR), the Crested Butte Nordic Center and Irwin are all taking strides to make the best of the snow they have.
In a Monday memo, CBMR general manager Ethan Mueller explained the resort is open to making more snow, but “our decision to stop making snow was simply that we had made a more than sufficient amount of snow on all the areas on which we have snowmaking.”
He said that 91.5 million gallons of water yielded 456.1 acre-feet of snow—the equivalent of a foot of snow across an acre. According to Erica Reiter, CBMR’s public relations and communications manager, the resort is pleased with the quality of snow CBMR has. Specialized equipment makes it possible to soften the upper layers of snow without compromising the base.
CBMR will continue to focus on grooming and maintaining that quality, Reiter said, but “by all means, if we have to throw the snowmaking guns back on, we will do so in a heartbeat.”
At the Nordic Center, “instead of driving around with the snowcat trying to beat the air out of the snow to make firm trails for Nordic skiing, we’re shoveling snow onto the trails,” explained executive director Keith Bauer.
 The Nordic Center has even worked with the court system to utilize help from people with court-mandated community service hours. They have kept trails open on the Bench, at the Town Ranch trailhead and off of Peanut Lake Road. But the bigger concern for Bauer is the Alley Loop, set to take place February 4.
“I don’t think the Alley Loop has ever been canceled, and I don’t think we want to go there, but I don’t know that we want to do six or seven 5k loops on the Bench either,” Bauer said.
There are options, however. During low snow years, the Alley Loop has been modified to start and end at the Nordic Center, and the board will meet this week to come up with a plan.
Up at Irwin, environmental director Billy Rankin says conditions are reflective of what’s going on in the rest of the valley. Most of their cat skiing terrain, much like the North Face or the Headwall at CBMR, needs a minimum amount of snow to open. Rankin says Irwin is one or two big storms away from skiing that more advanced terrain.
So in an unexpected twist, Irwin has shifted its focus to family groups, skiing on groomed tracks, offering instruction and opening a tubing and sledding hill. One of the men’s groups even transformed into a family vacation. Additional plans include dinner tours, where groups will ride the cat to Scarp Ridge and enjoy a meal at the movie cabin.
It’s a challenge, Rankin admitted, but “We’re doing well as far as being creative.”

A variable backcountry
Away from the groomers, even backcountry skiing has been affected by the weather. According to Crested Butte Avalanche Center forecaster John MacKinnon, sunny slopes have little or no snow. Shady slopes at lower elevations have weak, sugary snow. And last weekend, wind wreaked havoc on exposed snowpack.
“The current snowpack will be a weak and variable base for any incoming storms,” MacKinnon said by email. Avalanche danger will be lower where fresh snow falls on bare ground, but will be higher where snow falls on weak, sugary snow. Shady slopes at higher elevations will be the most suspect.
“The best-case scenario is one where it starts snowing and snows consistently. This way a natural avalanche cycle will occur and slopes will keep gaining snow throughout the season,” MacKinnon said. If a big snow comes, the slopes avalanche and then when it stops snowing, the snowpack will be back to shallow and variable.
As for when that snow will come? Gatz said, “This season we’re stuck in a rut and it’s going to take a lot to get out of this rut. If and when the pattern does change, get on top of it from the get-go and get as much powder as you can. Don’t waste what you get.”