Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow

Remember: Weather and climate are not the same

In a perfect world it would start snowing on Halloween and not stop until Easter. Towering snow banks would force the creation of tunnels from one block to the next. Every day it would hammer. Every day the wind would howl.

Crested Butte Mountain Resort would meet its November 27 opening day with a 100-inch base. Our community of misfits would prostrate not to the Green Man but to Üllr. Storms would be measured in feet rather than inches. Teocalli Tamale would be forced to wallpaper with door signs marking one more day of new snow. We would remember who we are and why we moved here. Christmas lights on Elk and guaranteed airline flights be damned. Winter would be winter and sunbirds would stay home.
Last week, rumors flying across the Internet called for 13 feet of snow at Mt. Baker in northwest Washington State. It didn’t happen, but even out here in the arid southwest the idea of a snowy apocalypse was planted in the social psyche.
On September 30 the venerable Farmer’s Almanac issued its 2013-2014 Ski Report, stating, “This year’s forecast indicates that nearly all of North America will see very cold temperatures this winter with normal, or heavier than normal, snowfall, for most regions… This year’s forecast means nearly every region of the U.S. and Canada will see a spectacular skiing season.”
That prophecy seemed to be holding true in Crested Butte late last week as an early storm brought driving winds and several inches of snow to the valley floor. The storm, though not likely to add snow to the base in the long term, did suffice to put more moisture into the soil, which could aid in the preservation of snowpack later in the winter. It also prompted long-time Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory weather recorder billy barr to say, “The days of 60º F temperatures are probably done with.”
These prophecies and their evidence as storms, though lovely, could leave many people questioning the validity of climate change. They shouldn’t. Climate and weather are not the same. According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, weather is considered on a short-term scale, and it is often expected to shift on a day-to-day, sometimes minute-to-minute scale. Climate is different. It’s the weather of a place averaged over a period of time, and is often considered on a scale of decades and centuries. Weather is the postage stamp. Climate is the billboard.
On that note, last December the not-for-profit-group Protect Our Winters working with the Natural Resources Defense Council issued a report on the impact of climate change on winter tourism in the United States. They found, “Climate change is expected to contribute to warmer winters, reduced snowfall, and shorter snow seasons,” in winter-dependent areas throughout the United States.”
Looking specifically at Colorado, the groups found, “average winter temperatures are projected to increase an additional five to seven degrees Fahrenheit under a higher-emissions scenario over the next century, resulting in a 25 percent to 75 percent decrease in snow depth depending on region. Additionally, a greater proportion of winter precipitation will fall as rain instead of snow.”
If this holds true, it is unlikely that even the best winter imaginable in 2013-2014 would prevent the loss of ski culture in our valley over the long-term. What then is there for a snow-worshipping, ski loving Crustafarian to do?
“As an industry we’re always optimistic for snow no matter what. We can’t really say whether climate change is happening or isn’t happening, it seems like even the people who are studying it go back and forth,” said CBMR spokesperson Erica Mueller. “What I do know is that we’re always looking for a great snow year, and I really think this is going to be a good one.”
The long and short may then be to cross our fingers and do the dance for snow.