Weather forecasters predict a relatively dry winter until February of 2025

But…State is overall experiencing little drought

By Katherine Nettles

For those who are dreaming of a white Christmas, the snow that has already fallen across the Gunnison Valley might have to suffice through the end of the year. Weather forecasters are predicting the next couple months may be relatively dry, which is not ideal for the ski season or the holiday visitor outlook but comes after an unusually active set of fall storms that have set the Gunnison River Basin and even most of the state up to be in better-than average shape in terms of moisture for the time being. 

In an update to Gunnison County commissioners last week, Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District (UGRWCD) representatives reported that water year 2025 has started off at about 124% of the median for precipitation. 

UGRWCD senior water resource specialist Beverly Richards said that as of December 3, the Gunnison Basin is experiencing no drought conditions. “These conditions have been in place for Gunnison County since the end of October,” said Richards, adding that 77% of the state is also experiencing no drought compared to early October when only 48% of the state was free of drought conditions.  

Precipitation from late October to early December ranged across the state from 50% to 200% of normal, said Richards, as storms ranged in intensity across the Western Slope, and snow-water equivalent (SWE) in the basin is now at 132% of the median. “But both precipitation and SWE are normally low in the fall,” she noted, so the numbers are relative and do not reflect particularly high levels of precipitation overall. For example, the snow telemetry (SNOTEL) site at Schofield Pass shows that snowpack is at 121% of normal there, but Richards pointed out, only has 8.8 inches of snowpack. “It’s still registering more than we have typically [at this time] but not a tremendous amount,” she said.

And forecasters have predicted very little precipitation within the basin for the next several weeks. According to OpenSnow weather forecasts, the next storms will hit harder to the north. “Many of the storms that are going to come through just aren’t going to provide a whole lot of precipitation and SWE. So that’s where it stands for the next three months,” reviewed Richards of the long-range forecast that many are hoping proves wrong. “It’s the whole intermountain west, so it’s not just us…the El Niño that they had predicted is so weak now that it may not even happen. And there are no atmospheric rivers forecasted for the next three months—those are the ones that brought all the snow the last time.” 

Cloud seeding operations in the basin began November 1, with plenty to work with at the time: there were seven seeded storm events in November, 296 manual generator hours, 114 remote generator hours and 9.9 inches of SWE accumulation during those seeded events, according to analysts. 

UGRWCD general manager Sonja Chavez said that reservoir storage levels are looking good throughout the basin, apart from Lake Powell. “They are still making releases out of the Aspinall unit (in the Black Canyon of the Gunnison River) to make sure the whitewater gauge is reading 1,050 CFS [cubic feet per second],” she said, a level that the Bureau of Reclamation requires through December. “So hopefully Blue Mesa won’t drop much more than 65%,” she said of the result.

Richards reported that the reservoir storage within the larger Upper Colorado River Basin is at 67% full. “All the reservoirs except Lake Powell are looking pretty healthy and they are saying that’s going to be a good thing going into the spring runoff.”

Although still a while off, Chavez said airborne snow measurement flights are on track for the spring to help measure and model snowpack going into runoff season.

“Airborne snow flights are a go. We did have one partner drop out but thankfully the Colorado Water Conservation board was able to find some projects bill funding to fill in the $30,000 gap that we had. So we’re really grateful for that and will be moving forward with those flights starting in late March or early April,” said Chavez.