Unseasonably cool weather delays spring runoff

Taylor Park Reservoir looking bare

Taylor Park Reservoir is looking a little dry these days. So dry that the buoy off of Bullpoint—normally floating in four feet of water, according to Dee Dee Marriott of Taylor Park Marina—is lying on the exposed reservoir floor. It’s a surprising sight, but it all comes down to the gambling game that is water management, and Mother Nature.

“We drew down the reservoir during the month of May so it would give us better flexibility to try to avoid correspondence with the peak flow on the East River,” said Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District general manger Frank Kugel. “The East River has a 50/50 chance of exceeding the flood level at Almont, so we want to make sure that releases from the Taylor can be postponed so they don’t coincide with that peak. And the main goal is to not spill the reservoir, and to give us better flexibility to use the outlet for releases.”
Kugel updated the Taylor/Gunnison River Local Users Group (TLUG) on the status of the reservoir this week. The group, which represents key interest groups along both the reservoir and the Gunnison River, provides input for the reservoir release plan the board of directors of the Upper Gunnison River District submits to the Bureau of Reclamation.
“Unfortunately, the anticipated runoff continues to be delayed by the recent cooler and wetter-than-normal weather,” Kugel said “Fortunately, the near-term weather forecast for the next two weeks calls for warmer and drier conditions beginning Wednesday [May 25], which should hopefully begin to fill the reservoir in earnest.”
But Marriott, a member of the TLUG, has voiced concerns that too much water is being released from the reservoir. She says she hasn’t seen the water levels this low since the drought of 2002.
“People are going to be shocked when they come up here,” Marriott said. “I understand where they’re coming from—there’s so much snowpack. I just hope they’re right.”
According to Kugel, inflow to the reservoir is forecast at 139 percent of average for April through July, and snowpack is at 72 percent of the peak average for the year. The latter is a different measurement than forecasters might look at earlier in the season. But take the three Taylor Park SNOTEL units; according to Kugel they show the snowpack at 285 percent of average for this time of year.
“That seems extremely alarming because it’s three times what we might normally see,” Kugel said. “But when the norm at this time of year tends toward zero, having more snowpack quickly skews that measurement.”
It’s more accurate, he says, to consider the percent of the average peak. Snowpack tends to peak in early to mid April, so comparing the current snowpack to what forecasters tend to see at that time of the year is more helpful for forecasting. The main point? There is snow that will lead to meltwater.
“We’re running at least two weeks behind schedule or later than normal for snowmelt,” Kugel said, acknowledging concern that there is too much outflow from the reservoir. “Mother Nature has just decided she’s not ready to melt her snow yet.
“Right now we’re releasing 650 cfs and that was a flow rate the user group felt was an appropriate level, and I was successful in requesting that release rate from the Bureau of Reclamation. We’ll hold that level until we have a better idea of what the runoff is going to do,” Kugel continued.
According to Kugel, the next few weeks will make things more clear as the weather shifts toward spring. But, he acknowledged, it’s a balancing act. Drawing down the reservoir affects the marina, but not releasing enough outflow could hurt ranchers with flooding downstream.
“It’s a delicate balance in trying to maximize use of the reservoir and make everyone happy with the flow regime,” Kugel said. And some of it is up to nature.