The Crested Butte News Serving the Gunnison Valley since 1999
It’s beginning to look a lot like…2022
By Katherine Nettles
It hasn’t been a deep December—yet—but so far drought conditions for early winter have been moderate due to fall rain and relatively average precipitation. Water experts from the Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District (UGRWCD) have indicated this may be a similar season to 2022/2023.
UGRWCD general manager Sonja Chavez and senior program manager Beverly Richards gave Gunnison County commissioners an update last week on soil, water and reservoir storage as well as the ongoing Colorado River negotiations.
Richards reviewed that October rains helped improve drought conditions drastically across the Upper Gunnison Basin this fall. The rains came just in time to quell what was becoming severe drought across the county after a long summer of abnormally dry conditions.
“We had a really tough drought year until this fall,” summarized Chavez. “Then we got some really good rains around the community; it was a good wet-up.”
The Upper Gunnison Basin’s overall precipitation was 187% of normal for the water year that ended in October, based on readings from eight SNOTEL sites across the upper basin.
In the time since, precipitation throughout the county has swung from 25% to 300% of normal.
The six weeks that followed did not change conditions much, reported Richards, and this month the Gunnison Basin was measured at 109% of normal as a result of the October rain. Snow-water equivalent (SWE) measured at 3 inches prior to the snowstorm two weeks ago, which is low compared to the median of 3.8 inches for this time of year.
“We’ve been tracking similar to 2022 a lot of this year,” said Richards, which was a historically dry year.
Soil moisture per volume is in the range of 15% to 33%, “This is good we have some soil moisture going in to when temperatures go down and [the ground] starts to freeze, so that it doesn’t evaporate,” she said.
Cloud seeding began on November 15, and there have been five seeded storm events, using 197 manual generator hours and 46 remote generator hours. “We now have three active remote generators, one on West Beckwith Peak, one at Black Mesa and one at Lake Irwin,” reported Richards.
There is snow in longer range forecasts, according to OpenSnow, which tentatively indicate there may be a white Christmas ahead following the warm, dry period of the past two weeks.
“Hopefully we get some more precipitation and keep things up,” said Richards.
Other Gunnison Basin news
County commissioner Jonathan Houck asked if the UGRWCD had released water earlier from Taylor Reservoir this fall, having heard some community concerns for recreation and aquatic life.
“This year the group tried hard to keep the flows at a level that benefitted all water users. So, they didn’t start making those reductions to winter flows until the beginning of October—which is fairly normal,” answered Richards.
Chavez added that the Colorado Parks and Wildlife Commission wants flows in the Taylor stabilized at their winter levels by October 15, “so that we’re not interfering with the spawning season for brown trout.”
Looking ahead, the UGRWCD will focus on strategic planning in 2026 and has just selected a consultant specializing in demand management and drought planning processes. “We got a lot of really good feedback and input from the drought planning process,” said Chavez, who indicated the next step is to summarize and condense all that information and come up with a plan for the next five to 10 years “to address the challenges we face in our community.”
Colorado River Basin talks
UGRWCD’s general counsel John McClow updated to commissioners that Colorado River Compact member negotiations continue between the seven states within the Colorado Basin, as the river has been historically over-allocated.
Adding to the urgency, Lake Powell water storage levels are falling, and the reservoir is currently just 26.9% full, according to its database, with the waterline at 3,541 feet in elevation as of this week—20.6 feet above what is considered critical elevation level.
“Lake Powell levels are down almost 33 feet from one year ago,” said Richards, “again tracking pretty closely with 2022.”
McClow said that while the deadline for water management agreements was originally in November, discussion has been allowed to continue among the seven states because they need a plan, and “they are still talking.”
McClow said he was disappointed with Arizona officials’ recent statements that they should not have to make any concessions to Arizona’s water supply.
Houck asked what the worst-case scenario would be if discussions break down without any compromises. McClow confirmed that the US Secretary of the Interior would have the ultimate decision-making authority. “In the lower basin the secretary is the water master,” said McClow, and could therefore curtail water use in the lower basin states which are California, Arizona and Nevada. McClow said he does not have authority to curtail the upper basin states, however.
“What he could do to us in our opinion is very limited,” said McClow. “What operating guidelines the Board of Reclamation might come up with is hard to say. They can’t compel any reductions in the upper basin…And you can’t curtail what’s not there.”
Houck noted that the upper basin states have not depleted flows that the Colorado River Compact required must arrive at the lower basin states and McClough agreed.
“It feels like a big game of chicken,” commented commissioner Laura Puckett Daniels.
