Summer visitation seemed to shift due to fire and gas prices

But high-end spenders using air can make up some potential sales tax declines

by Mark Reaman

As we transition from the busy summer tourism season to fall color season, visitor numbers to Crested Butte and Gunnison County could be slightly lower this summer than last year primarily due to a decrease in the drive market, especially in July and August. But a corresponding hit on summer spending could be muted because of a major increase in the number of people arriving to the valley by air — and those visitors spend significantly more than those driving in from the Front Range.

“Early summer performed well,” Tourism and Prosperity Partnership (TAPP) executive director Andrew Sandstrom told the board of the Gunnison Valley Regional Transportation Authority (RTA) at its August meeting. “June Local Marketing District (LMD) numbers came in 2.5% to 5% up. But we are seeing softness in July, and we would expect to see about a 5% decrease. Similarly, August is pacing a little bit soft. Further ahead, we are seeing some strength in bookings as we look forward to September.”

“Any theories on why numbers were up in June but down in July?” asked RTA board member Ian Billick.

“The trails were open earlier this year given low snow conditions, so we got some last-minute drive market visitors earlier than is typical when they heard the wildflowers were blooming earlier,” Sandstrom explained. “Into July, there was some uncertainty with wildfires and what the smoke was going to do. Gas prices were also high. So, the drive market visitation held back a bit. Every zone we tracked was up in May and June but saw a drop in July.

“We did see a big bump in air passenger traffic however,” Sandstrom continued. “That helped a lot. The Front Range drive traffic was the main decline.”

RTA air consultant Bill Tomcich confirmed that analysis and said this summer’s air traffic has been beyond outstanding. “Most extraordinary is that the first full month of American Airlines flights from Dallas to Gunnison in the summer has been amazing. They ended up running an 85.7% load factor for June,” he said. “We knew that the American service would probably impact passengers on both United and JSX.”

“But I’m pleased to report that despite running at almost 86% full, the impact to the other two carriers was a lot less than I feared,” Tomcich continued. “United bookings were down just 2% from a year ago. JSX trimmed back some flights, but they ended up maintaining a 70% load factor like last July. That answered the question about whether JSX could coexist with American and it is obvious both carriers can service Dallas. It’s a success story for all three carriers.

“For July of 2026, the Gunnison airport saw a 62% increase in total passenger traffic over last July which was a record for that month,” Tomcich continued. “So, I am very impressed with the results for July, and I am expecting August to also be strong. The Dallas flights will end after the first week in September and Labor Day weekend.”

Air travelers generally more flush than drive market visitors

RTA board member Liz Smith asked about the demographics of JSX passengers. Tomcich said they were higher end economically than typical American Airlines passengers.

“JSX has a small but loyal following,” he said. “After this summer there is some interest from JSX in resuming winter flights to Gunnison, probably not this winter but maybe in 2027. It’s a premium product and priced accordingly but they are finding their niche here.”

Sandstrom agreed. “We have different visitor profiles, including for those that come in on JSX,” he said. “The Front Range has way more visitors, way more volume here, but way less spending. They are more likely to pack their car with groceries. They are more likely to stay with friends or relatives or camp. They are less likely to spend at restaurants. Whereas with Dallas visitors, they are actually one of our most valuable customers. The volume isn’t as big as Denver but the spend is much bigger per visitor. So, price sensitivity doesn’t impact everyone the same. There’s some context for Liz.”

Locals on board with GUC

Tomcich pointed out that while airfares in general have gone up recently, primarily due to jet fuel price increases, “the cost of flying out of Gunnison compared to Denver has never been more affordable. When I talk to locals they are raving about how convenient and affordable it is to fly from the Gunnison airport.”

“The two factors that impact locals using the airport are price and reliability,” added RTA executive director Scott Truex. “We’ve got those now. Secondly, this American Airlines program this summer is absolutely amazing. I don’t know if we’ve ever had an 86% load factor on any flight program in the summer. And it’s a big plane, twice the size of the United planes.”

“The major increase in the number of locals using the Gunnison airport is a striking thing,” said Billick referencing a recent study indicating 32% of airline tickets from GUC were purchased by people starting their travel from Gunnison, so presumably locals. “We have also gone from 4% to 20% of remote workers living in the Gunnison Valley which is pretty striking. It is reflected in people able to travel on the planes.”

“One thing I can sort of predict is that for next year, I could see American expanding the summer program by starting earlier and ending it later,” said Tomcich. “They might even add extra capacity in July.”

Winter air (and climate change) preparations

As for upcoming winter air service, the RTA board agreed to sign Minimum Revenue Guarantee (MRG) contracts with United Airlines for service between GUC and Houston and GUC and Chicago. The Houston service will be the same schedule as last winter but given fuel prices, the MRG will be for a maximum of $298,000 compared to $204,000 last year. Tomcich said one big improvement will be the use of higher performance planes this season which will help with reliability.

Tomcich did note that a big reason the RTA paid the full MRG last year was because the warm and dry conditions in March kept people away from the ski hill at the end of the season, so many seats were not filled.

“Do we need to adjust our marketing due to climate change and things like a warm, dry March and rain in December and January?” asked Billick.

“We have shifted some of our marketing,” responded Sandstrom. “We put out more of a lifestyle message touting all the other things to do in winter and we pushed a bit more on group and conference marketing. But people still come here in winter primarily to ski.”

The RTA has a chance to more than double the number of flights from Chicago from 21 round trips last season to 43 in the coming ski season. But the RTA wants to be able to use a federal Department of Transportation grant they have been awarded to help cover the $795,000 MRG contract. That will take a grant amendment and the board agreed that if the DOT didn’t let them know whether that amendment was good to go by September 15, they will fall back on a similar Chicago flight schedule as last year with an MRG of $350,000.