Walking the line with COVID in the county as we enter 2021

Lots of moving targets

[ by Mark Reaman ]

All eyes are on the open hospital beds at the Gunnison Valley Hospital and other Western Slope hospitals, as the number of positive coronavirus cases remains higher than what is comfortable in the region.

Gunnison County remains one of four counties in Colorado with the fewest restrictions. Restaurants here can accommodate limited indoor dining while most of the rest of the state is limited to providing take-out. But that could change if the number of positive cases in the valley continues to stay high or, more important, if hospital beds begin to fill up with COVID-19 patients.

“We are not out of the woods yet and Joni [Reynolds, county Public Health director] remains concerned with the elevated numbers,” said Gunnison County public information officer Andrew Sandstrom. “The spike in numbers seems to be a trend for the Western Slope of Colorado as the Front Range numbers are decreasing because of their tighter restrictions. If we continue with this trend, history indicates we will eventually see hospital beds start to fill up and people start to die. The number of COVID deaths in Delta County has increased recently. So [Reynolds] has concern about the numbers and the likelihood of the state imposing tighter restrictions. In fact, if we start to see more people being hospitalized we will have to increase the restrictions locally.”

The middle of December saw a noticeable spike in the number of positives in the county. For the week starting December 14, 99 positives were recorded, in part because of a big community testing push. This past week, 43 positives were recorded. Most of those are in the younger demographic category, with almost 70 percent being associated with people under the age of 50. “But it is not just the college kids,” emphasized Sandstrom. “The virus is impacting older people and those with underlying conditions.”

The county’s positivity rate is at about 6 percent. The state considers anything under 5 percent to be acceptable. “Our testing protocols indicate we as a community are doing a good job of finding the virus,” said Sandstrom. “There is not a massive amount of cases missing. That makes it easier to track and contain. But given the state trends we are still on an edge and there is some pressure to put all counties in the same categories, to be unified with the rest of the state. The community testing that saw more than 1,600 people gave us some good data and shows we are doing pretty well.

“The community has taken this seriously and been committed to the mitigation measures,” Sandstrom continued. “There has been good mask compliance and people are staying socially distanced. The community gets it and we’ve been really collaborative across the valley.

Vaccine update
With more than 300 initial doses of the Pfizer vaccine and 600 of the Moderna vaccine administered in the county as of this week for a total of 936, close to 5 percent of the population has started the vaccine process that takes two doses. The second doses will start being given on January 7.

“The vaccine issue in the state is a bit of a moving target. But we have gotten the majority of frontline healthcare workers in the vaccination pipeline,” said Sandstrom. “A few decided to wait or had scheduling conflicts but those in that group who wanted a vaccine got one and that was most of them. We have started administering to the next group that includes people like firefighters and EMS personnel. And, based on CDC guidance, we are moving toward giving the vaccine to those 75 years old or older.”

He said it is estimated about 400 county residents fall into that category and outreach is being developed to touch base with all of them.

Sandstrom said the county is still waiting on definitive word from Walgreens that the company will vaccinate all those living in senior care centers in Colorado. “We expect to hear this week if that will still happen,” he said. “We won’t wait too much longer but if Walgreens can take care of them it frees up more doses for others.”

In fact, the county sent out a survey of local businesses this week to get an idea of how many people are in consistent contact with the public. Those people, who include positions such as grocery store clerks, food servers, teachers and ski instructors, could be moved up to the front of the vaccination line as the state shifts around its priorities.

When the county will get fresh first doses of the vaccine is another moving target. “We don’t have a super clear picture of that as the numbers and timing seem to shift a lot,” said Sandstrom. “But generally, Colorado is faring pretty well in the vaccine area. It is ranked fourth in the country for vaccine performance.”

But until a lot more people are vaccinated and the number of positive cases starts to decline considerably, Sandstrom gave his weekly warning to stay vigilant. “We are all tired of this thing but our efforts have paid off,” he said. “So keep wearing that mask in public, wash your hands and give yourself a safe socially distanced space from other people.”