Local experts cautiously hopeful with winter ski season forecast

“Our community at large is at a great place”

After a record-breaking summer for many businesses in the north end of the valley, the focus is turning to winter. The ski area opens November 24, Nordic skiing’s been in play for nearly a month, and overall we’re seeing the snow stack up early, which all the experts say is essential for starting off the season strong.
One indicator is airline seat bookings, and to date, according to Airplanners president Kent Myers, who consults for the Rural Transportation Authority (RTA), “We’re a little bit ahead of last year. It looks pretty good at this point in time, especially from a load-factor perspective.” Booking in other sectors, like lodging, are either on pace or higher than last year. Overall, within the business community there is a sense of cautious optimism for this winter.
On Wednesday, November 17, the Crested Butte/Mt. Crested Butte Chamber of Commerce held a Winter Tourism Forecast community meeting, which included seven panelists who spoke to their projections for the season. The panelists include Erica Kelleher of the Gunnison-Crested Butte Tourism Association (TA); Jayson Simons-Jones of Crested Butte Mountain Guides (CBMG); Kyra Martin of C.S. Irwin; Gabe Martin, representing both the Colorado FreeSkier and the Big Air on Elk; Keith Bauer of the Crested Butte Nordic Council; Mike Nolan from the Downtown Crested Butte Lodging Association (DCBLA); and Daren Cole of Crested Butte Mountain Resort (CBMR).
Overall, the panelists were optimistic for this winter, with early-season snow marking a good start to the season. Erica Kelleher spoke first, and pointed out that the TA’s website traffic is up 43 percent, noting that much of their traffic comes from Colorado and Texas. She said there are a lot of reasons for people to visit this winter. “There are 96 events between opening day and closing day of the ski area—we’re pretty confident there is an event or 12 for everyone.”
Concerning traveling trends, Kelleher said, “People are still interested in traveling, but they want deals—they want to come here, but they want a deal.”
Simons-Jones of CBMG opened with, “I’m probably the smallest operation up here.” But his operation draws substantial people from outside the valley during winter, whether they come for avalanche courses, guided trips, camps, or training. CBMG puts on more than 20 avalanche classes a winter, and Simons-Jones said 80 percent of the participants are from outside the valley.
“Booking for the season is on par with last year,” he said. “We ran 23 avalanche courses last year and filled nearly every course. It brings folks to town that will be here multiple days. We’re also pretty optimistic; it’s a tough economy, but we just had our busiest summer ever. The people are out there, and they are much more likely to book when they see added value. The trend I’ve seen is it’s last-minute stuff, last-minute bookings. So it’s hard for us to put a dollar amount on [bookings] this time of year.”
Gabe Martin, owner of the Colorado FreeSkier, spoke primarily about the Big Air on Elk event, which is gaining major traction and garnering national exposure. It’s scheduled for March 12, 2011. “The bars and restaurants were saying it was ‘like their 4th of July,’—one of our goals was to make this the 4th of July of winter,” Martin said.
The timing of the event coincides with Spring Break, which offers maximum exposure to a group of people who will appreciate this style of event. Martin said there will be a live video feed from the event broadcast on the Internet, and Freeskier Magazine will be a main sponsor this year.
On the Nordic side of things, Nordic Center director Keith Bauer spoke to the great early-season skiing and expansions of the trail system. “When there’s snow here, there’s about 90km of skiing here. We’ve been skiing Lily Lake since October 27. Only a couple places in the nation have good early-season skiing—South Yellowstone has a camp that attracts a few thousand people, [and] we attract about 100.” Bauer said there’s a lot of room to grow that number.
“Pass sales are up about 5 percent; other bookings are on par with last year,” he summarized. “All in all, the Nordic Center has seen 11 percent growth over the last few years. Last year, day-pass sales were up over the year before.” Bauer also mentioned the addition of a new 5km track at the North Village in Mt. Crested Butte, made possible through a partnership between the ski area, Nordic Center and the town. “I think it’s gonna get a ton of use, and it’s more visible for tourists.” The new trail will accommodate skate and classic skiing.
Up at Irwin they’ve already received 100-plus inches of snowfall, and C.S. Irwin administrative director Kyra Martin said the snowcat skiing operation is 28 percent booked to date. They operate from December 1 through April 30. Martin said their customer base is “Lots of second-home owners, locals, corporate retreats, and private schools,” among others. On Saturday, December 11, the operation will host a randonnée race as part of the COSMIC ski-mountaineering race series.
Pricing starts at $450 per seat and drops to $350 once CBMR closes. Also, if you book at the last minute, literally, between 3 a.m. and 6 a.m. the same day you want to ski, you can score a seat in the cat for $250.

The owner of the Elk Mountain Lodge, Mike Nolan, spoke on behalf of the Downtown Crested Butte Lodging Association. The new group represents lodging in the town of Crested Butte. “We’re trying to get a presence in town, and pool resources for marketing and ideas,” explained Nolan. “Our budget is pretty small, we’re really just beginning. One of our main goals is to make sure people have the best guest experience possible when they come here.” He said overall the other DCBLA members are optimistic about the winter season, and numbers are up from last year. “Personally, my numbers are up quite a bit,” Nolan said.
Daren Cole, CBMR’s vice president of sales and marketing, closed out the meeting with a presentation on the resort’s sales and marketing strategies, as well as a look at the upcoming winter by the numbers. He also detailed the awards bestowed upon the resort for its marketing, guest services, and environmental achievements.
The ski season at CBMR will run from November 24 to April 3. It doesn’t hurt that they’ll open with the best conditions in five years or more. Overall the resort assumes the economy will continue to be weak, but improving. For example, at the resort overall revenue is trending up 7 percent year over year (YOY), and season pass sales revenue is up 5 percent YOY. Cole said group business is up approximately 35 percent YOY, Crested Butte Vacations is up 2 percent, and group nights as a whole are up 19 percent.
As for events this winter, CBMR cited groups and events including the International Airline Ski Federation, the Matthew Shepard Gay Ski Week, and the Festevol Winter Concert on March 26 will feature OAR as the headlining act. And the Bump and Jump is back.
CBMR chief of operations Ken Stone commented from the crowd, “I think you’re going to see a lot of physical improvements [at the ski area]. We spent about $2 million on upgrades, including a renovation of the Treasury Center, which adds more than 200 seats.”
Stone touched on the Snodgrass decision as well. “Last year at this time we were faced with the Forest Service [and its rejection of the Snodgrass proposal]. We spent millions of dollars on that effort. We don’t have that monkey on our back this year, and that’s a great thing. There’s a feeling, a new energy and momentum going into the season I haven’t felt before.
“I think our company is in a much better place, and our community at large is at a great place,” Stone concluded.
With that, the chamber closed the meeting with a few updates of its own, including a celebration of the Chamber’s 30th anniversary on Saturday, December 17, in addition to a number of events and programs that will carry throughout the winter.