Carbon Conundrum Part 3: A Disrupted Ecosystem eEc

It feels strange to write about climate change and global warming on a January day when it’s so cold my car still won’t start at 11:15 a.m. But climate change manifests itself in many ways, and just because it’s cold doesn’t mean winter isn’t changing. Or the rest of the seasons, for that matter. Local stories of mountain streams gone dry, much to the chagrin of thirsty backpackers, is just one example of change on the ground, visible in our lifetimes.

Shorter winters in the West are also a projected result of the shifting climate, which has vast ecological implications and will strain water supplies relied upon by upwards of 30 million people. There are copious biological implications. On the economic side, shorter winters accompanied by less snowfall could equal a shorter ski season, particularly in lower elevation locations where the rain/snow line is very fine.
We will tackle the economic side of the story in the next installment. Here, ecosystems and the global scale of the issue are the focus.

Global Scale
It’s a big problem, spanning every country and culture on the planet. That’s stating the obvious, but it’s easy to get tunnel vision here in our little mountain hamlet. Chris Menges, High Country Citizens’ Alliance Climate and Clean energy director, helps us look outside the valley walls.
“NASA data shows that 2010 was the hottest climate year on record,” Menges explained. “The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports that 2000-2010 was the warmest decade on record. Eight of the ten hottest years on record have occurred since the year 2000. This continues a measurable trend showing incremental temperature increases for the past 50 years.
“The fact that it’s cold outside right now leads some to question whether or not this is accurate and leads to the necessity of understanding weather versus climate. As NASA explains, “The difference between weather and climate is a measure of time. Weather is what conditions of the atmosphere are over a short period of time, and climate is how the atmosphere ‘behaves’ over relatively long periods of time.
“At the same time, recent cold weather events in the eastern US and Europe provide fodder for climate skeptics. The reality is that these events are likely caused by climate change. While Florida shivers with unusually cold temperatures, Arctic Sea Ice has set a new low December record. The lowest ice conditions on record occurred in conjunction with above-average air temperatures in regions where ice would normally expand at this time of year. For example, air temperatures over eastern Siberia were 11 to 18 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in December and a consistent 18 degrees above normal over southern Baffin Island. How can we reconcile cold temperatures in London or Florida with an unprecedentedly warm Arctic? The abbreviated answer is that the overall warming of the climate is creating cold-weather extremes; cold air is spilling southwards and being replaced by warm air moving poleward.
“Ecologically, we’re already seeing untold numbers of extremely disturbing climate change impacts around the world. Ocean acidification for example, has dramatically increased and the foundations of the oceanic ecosystems are literally dying at alarming rates. On land and closer to home, nearly 70,000 square miles of forest have died from outbreaks of tree killing insects in the Rocky Mountains since the year 2000. These impacts are but two small examples of hundreds of climate change impacts that are currently happening around the world. In the future, it is likely that climate change will put some 20 percent to 30 percent of global species at high risk of extinction, by 2100.”
 
Symptoms of Climate Change in the West: A Warming Trend
The West in particular is a hotspot in climate talks, and Colorado is right in the thick of it. In 2008, the Rocky Mountain Climate Organization (RMCO) and the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) released a 64-page report titled Hotter and Drier-The West’s Changing Climate. At a couple of years old, it is slightly dated, but the data and trends are very representative of where we are, and where we are headed.
•    According to the report, when compared to the 20th century average, the West has experienced an increase in average temperature during the last five years that is 70 percent greater than the world as a whole. From 2003-2007, Colorado’s average temperature was 1.9º Fahrenheit warmer than the 20th century average.
•    In the arid and semi-arid West, global warming is already having serious consequences for the region’s scarce water supplies, particularly the snow that makes up most of the region’s precipitation and, when melted, provides 70 percent of its water. Already, decreases in snowpack, less snowfall, earlier snowmelt, more winter rain events, increased peak winter flows, and reduced summer flows have been documented.
•    Ecology and biology—increased likelihood of drought, wildfires, changes to wildlife habitat and a shift in the timing of seasons, the proliferation of mountain pine beetles… the list goes on.

Through the Local Lens
We also have a premier high-altitude research laboratory located right in our backyard: Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, in Gothic. RMBL researches biological responses to climate change, including in-depth studies on marmot populations and pollination services.
In July 2010, Nature published the results of RMBL’s marmot research as a full-length article and cover story. Simply put, the paper compares marmots from 1976 through 2008 to look for the effects of global warming on the animals. During that stretch, the winter thaws have arrived sooner, and the marmots have been emerging out of hibernation earlier. According to the article, the first sighting of a marmot now comes around April 20, a month earlier than in 1976. So they have more time to eat and grow, and because they are heavier on average and winters are shorter, more marmots are surviving winter hibernation. The population, according to RMBL, has tripled as a result.
On January 10, a Colorado Climate Change workshop, organized by state representative Max Tyler, was held in Denver. The workshop focused on Climate Change caused by human activity and the looming consequences for Colorado and the West. The purpose was to focus on the underlying reasons for the goal of diminishing our carbon footprint.
RMBL director Ian Billick presented a summary of research findings related to climate changed conducted at RMBL, along with some general conclusions. He joined several other experts to engage in “Climate Change: Science and Consequences for Colorado.”
Billick spoke to changes on the ground, and explained some of their climate change experimentation and research. Here are some of his points:
In the “climate warming” experiments, RMBL scientists observed impacts including:
•    Accelerates snowmelt date 4 to 15 days
• Raises soil temperature up to 3º Celsius
• Drops soil moisture up to 25 percent of existing levels

Effects on plants one of our prized resources, wildflowers:
• Decrease in showy wildflowers, increase in shrubs, mechanism is soil moisture (Harte and Shaw, 1995)
• Warming has a negative impact on wildflowers (Saavedra et al, 2003)
• Flowering time will advance up to 11 days for every two weeks of earlier snowmelt or for every increase in average spring temperature/growing season temp (Dunne et al, 2003)
• Flowering time of some species not effected and late-flowering species less sensitive (Dunne et al, 2003)

The findings of other key RMBL climate studies:
• Lodgepole pine increases productivity in response to warmer temperatures and earlier snowmelt (Kueppers and Harte, 2005; Perkins, 2005*)
• Engleman spruce insensitive to changes in temperature and snowmelt (Kueppers and Harte, 2005)
• Subalpine fir responds to drought in different ways at different sites (Valentovich, 2006*)
• Changing snowmelt date disrupting pollination communities (Forrest et al, 2010)
• Earlier snowmelt date means greater frost damage (Inouye, 2000; Inouye et al, 2002; Inouye, 2008)
• Earlier snowmelt possibly related to decline of a wildflower species (Miller-Rushing and Inouye, 2009)
• Predicted increase in precipitation variability associated with climate change will negatively affect the abundance and persistence of a wildflower species (Inouye et al, 2003)

Animal Responses
• Long-term data indicate mayfly emergence driven by peak flow and water temperature, experiments indicate temperature is driving factor. If relationship between flow and temperature changes, there will be impacts on population densities and distributions (Harper and Peckarsky, 2006)
• Over more than 30 years at a given site, there is an increase in some low-elevation bee (Bombus) species and decrease in high elevation bee species. Other Bombus and Psithyrus spp. show no changes (Miller, 2007*)
• Mosquito species moving up in elevation, which will affect disease distribution (anecdotal obs.)
• America robins arriving two weeks earlier from 1981 to 2001 (Inouye et al, 2000)
• Yellow-bellied marmots emerging 38 days earlier (Inouye et al, 2000)
 
These cumulative impacts of climate change, both local and abroad, are a lot to swallow all at once. Nonetheless, they are real. For another dose of reality, check in next week as we explore the consequences of a changing climate and global warming for the economy.