Local drought conditions look similar to 2022

Small wildfire breaks out in Taylor Park

By Katherine Nettles

As drought conditions continue to worsen across most of Gunnison County, the first, albeit small, wildfire of the season has broken out and since been contained in Taylor Park. Reports from forecasters suggest that the summer will be dry and warm, with peak snow runoff probably finished and monsoon season not at all certain—so fire precautions will likely be a reality for the foreseeable future. 

According to Gunnison County emergency services manager Scott Morrill, a five-acre wildfire dubbed the Illinois Creek Wildfire broke out on Monday. It was reported at 3:30 p.m. near Illinois Creek off County Road 742, via a 9-1-1 call to Gunnison Dispatch. The cause is still under investigation. 

Crews had containment lines established on Monday evening, and the containment lines held overnight with 100% containment reported on Tuesday. Gunnison Fire Department, U.S. Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management and Crested Butte Fire Protection district fire crews completed “mopping-up” on Tuesday evening, which is a process done to prevent re-ignition of the fire after containment. It was on private property, and no structures were affected by the fire and no injuries were reported.

Morrill said 152 people were evacuated from the area and sheltered. All were campers with Adventure Experience Inc. and Trout Unlimited. “Both groups were mainly junior high and high school kids, with councilors/chaperones,” said Morrill. “No residents were evacuated and in fact none were even on pre-evacuation notice.”

The campers were allowed to return to their camps Tuesday afternoon. 

 Gunnison County emergency services advised that those staying near or visiting that area can expect to see smoldering and smoke for a week or so.

Drought conditions degrading

Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District (UGRWCD) representatives reported on Tuesday that 63% of Gunnison County has now moved into moderate drought and 5% is in extreme drought. There are currently no areas in the county not experiencing drought. 

The state of Colorado moved from 44% not experiencing drought conditions to 35% in the past six weeks. 

UGRWCD senior program manager Beverly Richards updated Gunnison County commissioners that as of June 3, the drought monitor showed some improvement to conditions in the southern part of the state where there has been heavier precipitation, but areas to the north and west including the Gunnison Basin have seen between one and three class degradation in soil conditions. 

The seasonal outlook is for more of the same, unfortunately. “The forecasts are that drought will persist through August 31,” said Richards. “They’re really not anticipating any meaningful precipitation to last between now and then.”

Richards did say that on June 19 forecasters will share their conclusions as to whether monsoon season will occur in the southern part of the state this year. “If not, that could really make things worse,” she said.

Precipitation in the past 30 days has been fairly good, falling between 50% to 200% of normal. “Typically, May is a dry month so that has helped,” said Richards. Rainfall between half an inch up to two inches in the county within the past week has helped quite a bit in both streamflow and drought conditions, she added. 

Rivers peaked?

Richards said local streams and rivers have likely already hit their peak runoff for the season, with the possible exception of Lake Fork. The Gunnison River in Gunnison peaked at 2,190 cubic feet per second (cfs) on June 3 and as of June 9 was at 1,460 cfs.  

Comparatively, in 2024 the Gunnison River peaked at 4,000 cfs and in 2023 it was 3,360 cfs. “We really are trending closer to 2022 when it was 1,930 cfs,” said Richards.

Airborne snow observatory (ASO) images show substantial snow up at higher elevations that might help increase stream flows as it melts, but Richards said it is uncertain whether that snowmelt could be enough to reach a second peak runoff. 

Overall, she said, 2025 is trending close to 2022 conditions.

Reservoir storage in the Gunnison Basin is at 89% capacity, the Upper Gunnison Basin is at 74% of capacity and Taylor Reservoir is forecasted to fill to 85% capacity. Blue Mesa is expected to fill to 71% of average, at 645,000 acre-feet.

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