The Crested Butte News Serving the Gunnison Valley since 1999
Gunnison River Basin close to average right now
Odds are, you know someone who thinks he or she is a weather guru and will call for snow based on stiff joints, sinus pressure or some other “feeling.” The more legit snow and precipitation forecasts are based on scientific models, but they are still just that: models. Even so, there is valuable information to be gleaned from them as the snowpack develops here in the Gunnison River Basin and throughout Colorado.
As of January 25, the snow-water equivalent totals for the Gunnison River Basin were at 97 percent of average, according to data from the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). The Gunnison Basin stretches over 8,000 square miles of western Colorado, extending from the Continental Divide to the confluence of the Gunnison and Colorado Rivers near Grand Junction.
The 97 percent total puts Gunnison ahead of most basins in the state, with the exception of the Upper Rio Grande (108 percent) and the combined San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan River basins (104 percent). Those numbers sound pretty good, considering the seemingly dry December and early January that preceded last week’s storms.
According to Frank Kugel, general manager for the Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District, “We got a great shot in the arm with these recent storms. As of one week ago, we were at 76 percent of normal. We went from 76 percent to 97 percent in one week.”
Kugel also said water storage levels are doing well, with Blue Mesa at 68 percent of capacity, which is on target for this time of year. “Blue Mesa hits peak storage in June or July, and we try to get as close to full as possible by that time,” Kugel added. He noted it’s tough to forecast future water availability for the Gunnison Basin this early in the winter season.
A January 2010 Intermountain West Climate Summary report, produced by the Western Water Assessment, indicates the current El Niño event is expected to peak in the next one to two months and then persist through at least spring 2010, while continuing to exert some influence on climate in the Intermountain West.
According to the report, “Seasonal climate outlooks indicate an enhanced risk of above-average temperatures over much of the Intermountain West during February 2010 and through the spring. An enhanced risk of above-average precipitation is also indicated for February across much of the region.”
On average, by January 1 Colorado has received only about 40 percent of its maximum seasonal total snowpack, according to the NRCS. So 60 percent of the winter accumulation season is still ahead. A NCRS report dated January 5 stated: “Given our current conditions, we need to receive about 110 percent of average snowfall from now until mid-April to reach our average maximum totals.”
In addition to how much snow falls, there are other factors to consider, including climate change and other weather trends. Increased numbers of avalanches, snowpack instabilities, changes in wind patterns and precipitation are but a few of the potential impacts of climate change in the Colorado River Basin.
Water supply is the big player, the lifeblood, and suspect snow behavior translates to an uncertain water future. Even though we who live in Crested Butte and Gunnison are near the headwaters, we will be affected dramatically as the water supply decreases and downstream obligations still need to be met.
The general assessment of climate change in the Rockies points to a warming trend of approximately three degrees Fahrenheit by 2050, according to Dr. Brad Udall, a senior researcher at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That means more precipitation will fall as rain (not snow) in the fall and spring, and melt-off and sublimation rates will increase as warmer temperatures arrive earlier in spring. Udall claims the increase in temperature alone will reduce the water supply from the mountains, independent of any changes in precipitation levels.
Dust-on-snow, a component of the climate change phenomenon attributed to drying on the Colorado Plateau, has been studied for only the past six years. Multiple dust events affected the local mountains last spring, when red dust from Utah settled on the surrounding peaks and caused earlier snowmelt in March and April. Backcountry skiers avoided spots like Red Lady Bowl because the dusted snow became “grabby” and not much fun to turn on.
Chris Landry, director of the Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies in Silverton, Colo., traveled around Colorado last spring assessing damage done to the snowpack by the 12 layers of dust (the most ever recorded) that fell starting in October 2008. His findings were alarming.
“What we are observing is snowmelt advanced a month as a result of dust,” Landry says. “Instead of water managers dealing with this in 2050 [due to long-term climate change], they’re dealing with it now. The Colorado River is so over-appropriated already… there is no slack in the system.”
It remains to be seen how the dust will affect the 2010 snowpack.
Shifting weather patterns and reduced snow albedo (reflectivity) will pull the slack line even tighter in the entire Colorado River Basin, where seven states—Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming—and Mexico rely heavily on Colorado River water stored as snow in the high country. Approximately 25 million people throughout the basin are dependent on water from the Colorado River.
How much of that water will be available in the future remains to be seen. A Colorado Water Conservation Board report due out in the next few weeks takes a comprehensive look at the effects of climate change on water supplies in the Colorado River Basin. Preliminary findings from the Colorado River Water Availability Study indicate that by 2030 there will be 20 percent less water available in the Colorado River, and that figure could reach 30 percent by 2050.
