Drought conditions in the county improving slightly

Snow in the low and mid elevations mostly melted

[  By Katherine Nettles  ]

Despite a somewhat lackluster snow season behind us, soil conditions this spring around the county appear to be stable so far. This seems to be partly because soils started the winter with good moisture content and partly because some timely storms delivered substantial, if not consistent, precipitation to keep most of the county’s soil in relatively healthy shape.

According to a quarterly report from the Upper Gunnison River Watershed Conservancy District (UGRWCD) to Gunnison County commissioners last week, about two-thirds of Gunnison County is drought-free. Beverly Richards, senior program manager for the UGRWCD, shared information from the National Integrated Drought Information System which showed that more of the county was drought-free in April than in February. As of April 17, 63% of the county was experiencing no drought conditions, compared to 36% in February. This bucks the statewide trends.

“Most of the western part of the state continues to experience drought condition degradation,” said Richards. “The whole state has moved from 55% experiencing no drought conditions to 44% in the past nine weeks.”

Since the last report in February, Richards noted that areas to the east and south of the county have degraded in drought conditions. “It’s been pretty dry all around us. Hopefully we will get some storms here pretty soon,” she said.  

For the water year 2025 so far (which started on October 1), precipitation was at 96% of the median, based on records from 1991 to 2020. That reflected a slight increase from 94% due to the Easter weekend storms. 

Snow water equivalent (SWE) for the water year was 74% of the median as of April 21, and on April 29 it was 52% of average for this time of year.

Richards reported that the cloud seeding program is now complete, and there were 11 seeded storm events in March, with over 700 manual generator hours and 146 remote generator hours. There was a total of 14.2 inches of SWE.

Richards said forecasters have estimated that much of the snow at lower elevations has begun melting in earnest, but higher up stashes still hold potential.

“The snowpack is starting to melt,” she said, adding that in a meeting last week with the Taylor Local Users group, a representative from Airborne Snow Observatories, Inc (ASO) said most of the snow in the low and mid elevations has either fully melted out or started to melt out—but there is still some snow up high that remains intact. Richards noted that cold temps have helped slow down the melt off and local river flows reflect that.

The Gunnison River was up to over 1,000 cubic feet per second (CFS) on April 17, but by April 21 it was down to 636 CFS, she said as an example. 

The entire Gunnison Basin was sitting at 71% of average in mid-April, and the upper basin (Taylor and Blue Mesa Reservoir) was at 64% of average. 

Peak runoff?

Richards also attended an Aspinall Operations meeting last week and reported to the Crested Butte News that the Colorado River Basin Forecast Center is unable to forecast specific dates for peak runoff, but can forecast flows based on snowmelt.

“They are saying that there will be below average peaks with less than 10% of those flows exceeding flood thresholds,” said Richards. “This is throughout the Gunnison Basin, upper and lower. They did say that as flows increase and the time of historical peak gets closer they may have a better idea of the timing of peak flows.”

Richards calculated that for the past 10 years the median peak date has been June 7.  “However, there were years, 2018, 2022 and 2023 where the peak occurred in mid to late May. The median peak flows for that same time frame range from 3,120 to 3,340 CFS,” she said. “Forecasts are saying that if the warmer temperatures continue, the run-off will start in earnest and it could occur one to two weeks earlier than the historical peak.”

Richards said in a follow-up email on Tuesday that many of the SNOTEL [snow telemetry] sites the UGRWCD uses are close to melting out with Slumgullion and Upper Taylor currently at 26% of average, and Park Cone at 46% of average.

“This does not necessarily account for snow that is remaining above those sites which is also in the forecast. Precipitation is at 91% for this time of year,” she wrote. “It looks like the SNOTEL sites have had steady precipitation since April 20 even if the snow has nearly melted out in several locations.”

Reservoir storage

Richards said the Taylor Reservoir inflow has dropped down from 100,000 to 78,000 or 83% of average. She said this was because the Colorado River Basin Forecast Center has begun incorporating data from ASO flights and adjusted those inflow levels after ASO flights showed significantly less water than the center had forecasted. “We’re still not sure how accurate that is,” said Richards. It was also not clear when or why the center began using ASO data. 

Commissioner Laura Puckett Daniels commented that it’s good to know the ASO flight data are being incorporated in forecasts. “I know those flights are pricey, but it sounds like they are providing really valuable information that we can use to have more accurate projections…I guess the truth will be in the pudding when we see what happens with Taylor Reservoir and how the fill is if it aligns with this new forecast or not,” she said. 

Richards said ASO was surprised that the forecast center was suddenly using their data and hoped to get more information about it. 

The collective reservoir storage for the Upper Colorado River drainage basin is at 63%, which includes Lake Powell. Powell is down to 33% storage and still declining overall.

County commissioners commented on Richards’ reports that drought conditions seem to be improving despite the lack of significant storms. 

“The considerations that [drought analysts] use to determine conditions are precipitation, temperature and soil moisture,” said Richards. “And as of right now our soil moisture is looking really well. That along with [close to] 100% precipitation could be why we are still showing those conditions in the county.”